Percentage players die broke too!
by paul cronin on
February 16th, 2012
You’re in 3 NT, and the success of the contract depends entirely on bringing in 5 club tricks from the following holding:
You Dummy
K10xxx A9xx
Ah, but the bridge gods are with you this day – LHO leads the club Q!
Gleefully, you play low from dummy, win the K in your hand, and lead a small club to the 9.
Which loses to the J, and you are the only person in the room going down. You’ve got to know your percentages!
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Bridge-related
HBJ : It takes a rare beast to lead a stiff queen, or that card from a Qx holding, unless he/she wants you to believe it is from QJx. I can only assume clubs were not bid and agreed during the auction , giving the person on lead the sound idea that his/her partner might well be holding length in clubs.
In any event, even leading Q from QJx is fatal on the line of play adopted above. So if the defence is a class act then the queen must be a flyer, and the finesse of the jack must be taken the other way.
So I guess is not so much down to the odds, but table presence given the quality and defensive habits/ploys of one’s opponents